Q3 GDP growth may fall to 6.1% as demonetisation impact 

 The GDP growth for the quarter ended December 31, is expected to be in the range of 5.5 to 6.5 percent. Last year, the GDP grew by 7.2 percent in the same period.The full impact of the government's decision to demonetise high denomination currency in November is likely to show up in the December quarter's GDP growth number that comes out Tuesday. According to a median of five economists' estimates surveyed by Mint , the economic growth in the third quarter this fiscal may decline to 6.1 percent. The GDP growth for the quarter ended December 31, is expected to be in the range of 5.5 to 6.5 percent. Last year, the GDP grew by 7.2 percent in the same period. The third quarter's GDP number will be an important indicator of how the economy fared in the aftermath of demonetisation. 

 The Central Statistics Office (CSO) had come out with GDP growth estimates for financial year 2017 on January 6, but it captured data only till October, missing out on the key event of the cash ban which occured on November 8. The CSO has predicted a slowdown to 7.1 percent in economic growth in FY17, compared to FY16's growth at 7.6 percent. However, this was due to the slowdown in the country's manufacturing output in the first half of the fiscal. A similar survey conducted by Reuters , had suggested that the economy will grow by 6.4 percent in the December quarter. International rating agencies had also earlier trimmed growth estimates for the financial year 2017 to below 7 percent following the cash crunch. While experts feel the growth in industrial output is likely to slump in the third quarter, the agriculture output will rise owing to the healthy kharif output. The growth numbers will in many cases, not take into account the effects of demonetisation, as they don't include activity in the informal sector.

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