Sunday, February 4, 2018

Indian Rupee crumbles to a two week low on fiscal deficit woes

Forex market sentiment turned highly volatile and reacted vehemently to some key Budget announcements triggering panic dollar buying by corporates and importers

The Indian rupee suffered an intense plunge and closed at a near two-week low of 64.06 against the US dollar after the government announced long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax on equities and widened its fiscal deficit target while unveiling the Union Budget.
Forex market sentiment turned highly volatile and reacted vehemently to some key Budget announcements triggering panic dollar buying by corporates and importers.
The home currency settled the week with a sharp 51 paise, or 0.80 percent.

Unveiling the Budget 2018-19, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley projected a higher fiscal deficit of 3.5 percent of the GDP for 2017-18, as against the target of 3.2 percent.
Besides, the Centre introduced long-term capital gains tax of 10 percent on stock market gains exceeding Rs 1 lakh and the net borrowing for the current fiscal was also steeply raised to Rs 4.79 lakh crore as against the Budget estimate of Rs 3.5 lakh crore.
It was a double-whammy for the Indian currency following the FOMC announcement hit hard by hawkish Federal Reserve policy and a sudden rise in global crude prices, adding to worries about rates rising too quickly.
The FOMC held interest rates unchanged in line with market expectations but the accompanying statement was a bit more hawkish on the economy and inflation warranting further rate hikes in 2018.
The volatile situation was further aggravated by heavy losses in the domestic equity markets which witnesssed carnage following post-Budget sell-offs amid global crash.
Both the benchmark indices pulled back nearly 3 percent in the bloodbath.
The rupee started the week on a subdued note at 63.60 against last Thursday's close of 63.55 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (forex) market due to month-end dollar demand amid firm greenback overseas.
It traded in a tight range early part of the week before taking a knock reacting to post announcements of budgetary proposals.
The home currency plunged to a fresh one-month low of 64.20 on Thursday before ending at 64.06, showing a loss of 51 paise, or 0.80 percent.
Though, the rupee touched a high of 63.48 briefly.
The RBI, meanwhile fixed the reference rate for the dollar at 64.0781 and for the euro at 80.0335.
In the meantime, country's foreign exchange reserves rose sharply by $ 3 billion to touch a new life-time high of $ 417.789 billion in the week to January 26, the RBI said.
Foreign funds and overseas investors continued their portfolio buying spree and infused $ 248.05 million during the week.
In the international commodity front, global crude prices came under renewed selling pressure against the backdrop of rising oil production in the U.S., together with firming greenback following a strong U.S. jobs report.
U.S. shale production is soaring as the oil rig count once again ticked up this week, but OPEC's high compliance and the continued crisis in Venezuela has left oil markets at a stand still.
Brent crude futures settled at $ 68.58 a barrel.
On the global front, the American currency rose on Friday against a number of currencies including the Japanese yen and the euro after the monthly jobs report surpassed expectations.
U.S. job growth surged in January and wages increased further, recording their largest annual gain in more than 8-1/2 years.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, was up at 88.69 in early trade.

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